Kosher-Refuse
0x2117ae94a97d69b78cbc81b6680a62deb1955c26
Kosher-Refuse: −$70K on 275 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 59% (95% range 53%–65%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$70K
return −5.4%
Settled bets
275
$1.28M staked
Won
58.9%
95% range 53%–65%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 275 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$47K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$13K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$35K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 89¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PRIVATE
@ 80¢
Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: PRIVATE vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 37¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? | $4.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score |
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 73¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? |
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-09? | $4.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 37¢
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-09? | $2.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 67¢
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score |
Racing Club de Lens vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score | $7.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Mavericks
@ 49¢
Rockets vs. Mavericks |
Rockets vs. Mavericks | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.