Winged-Dumbwaiter-Tonality
Skill vs luck
Winged-Dumbwaiter-Tonality on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$12. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Winged-Dumbwaiter-Tonality: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x20e29d4f98851e4c3606edd441a18357552173c1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Winged-Dumbwaiter-Tonality: +$12 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- +$7
- Oct 20 – Nov 4
- +$5
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 99.7¢ | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 99.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9? | $1.1K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.