Unfinished-Reason
0x20b80ebb96e2051540e1d475e4ce122fc282aa04
Unfinished-Reason: −$964 on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 25%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$964
return −0.5%
Settled bets
21
$189K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 25%–64%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$65K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$66K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 73¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? | $10K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? |
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? | $45K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 30¢
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? |
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? | $1.5K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 24¢
Will Croatia vs. England end in a draw? |
Will Croatia vs. England end in a draw? | $4.0K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 35¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-10-02? |
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-10-02? | $2.8K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 31¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-09-28? |
Will Belgium win on 2026-09-28? | $1.1K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 29¢
Will Türkiye vs. Italy end in a draw? |
Will Türkiye vs. Italy end in a draw? | $62K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 28¢
Will Türkiye vs. Italy end in a draw? |
Will Türkiye vs. Italy end in a draw? | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.