Frail-Possible
0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14
Frail-Possible: −$127K on 629 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 70%–76%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$127K
return −4.3%
Settled bets
629
$2.98M staked
Won
73.1%
95% range 70%–76%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 629 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$127K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 | BUY Under
@ 83¢
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5 |
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 4.5 | $1.5K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Giorgia Pedone
@ 93¢
ITF W50 Kursumlijska Banja Women: Giorgia Pedone vs Zhibek Kulambayeva |
ITF W50 Kursumlijska Banja Women: Giorgia Pedone vs Zhibek Kulambayeva | $1.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 44¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 | $4.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 69¢
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 | $3.0K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Diane Parry
@ 95¢
Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry |
Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry | $5.1K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Diane Parry
@ 77¢
Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry |
Monterrey Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Diane Parry | $2.2K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Over
@ 39¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 | $1.7K |
| Aug 26 | BUY Independiente del Valle
@ 99.9¢
Spread: CD Tolima (-1.5) |
Spread: CD Tolima (-1.5) | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.