Verifiable-Obstacle
Skill vs luck
Verifiable-Obstacle on Polymarket: 26 settled bets · won 81% (95% range 62%–92%) · profit −$1.0K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Verifiable-Obstacle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1ee9a5fc09665909c0cce297c581703bfbb9197f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Verifiable-Obstacle: −$1.0K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 81% (95% range 62%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 23 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$180
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$964
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$585
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$336
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | $2.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 88¢ | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $2.7K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? |
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | $1.9K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Yes
@ 99.72¢
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 99.1¢ | Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No
@ 77¢
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? |
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 25 | SELL No
@ 85¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? |
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 25 | BUY No
@ 81¢
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? |
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?