Stale-Supermarket-Bidding
0x1dbf0ac12fc39564bf646b54b6f31de8942f1a6b
Stale-Supermarket-Bidding: −$562 on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 29%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$562
return −1.0%
Settled bets
23
$54K staked
Won
47.8%
95% range 29%–67%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$987
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$135
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$289
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | SELL Coleman Wong
@ 99.9¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs Lloyd Harris |
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs Lloyd Harris | $5.8K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Qinwen Zheng
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya | $5.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Anna Kalinskaya
@ 67¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya |
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya | $6.5K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Pittsburgh
@ 30¢
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech |
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech | $2.3K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Voca
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Voca vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO1) - ROG Journey Group D |
Counter-Strike: Voca vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO1) - ROG Journey Group D | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | SELL SportsBetExpert
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs HAVU (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B |
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs HAVU (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B | $1.6K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Novak Djokovic
@ 74¢
China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic |
China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic | $3.2K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Tatiana Prozorova
@ 58¢
Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Tatiana Prozorova |
Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Tatiana Prozorova | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.