Cheery-Realm

0x1a2f67124f12eaa88be0f6683a95abede555647a

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Cheery-Realm: −$3.9K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 48%–89%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$3.9K
return −15.8%
Settled bets
15
$24K staked
Won
73.3%
95% range 48%–89%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$3.9K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Aug 25 BUY Atlanta Dream @ 96¢
Atlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Atlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks $1.1K
Aug 25 BUY Over @ 95¢
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 $1.1K
Aug 24 BUY Yes @ 92¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? $1.7K
Aug 24 BUY Titans @ 66¢
Seahawks vs. Titans
Seahawks vs. Titans $1.3K
Aug 24 BUY Seahawks @ 65¢
Seahawks vs. Titans
Seahawks vs. Titans $1.1K
Aug 24 BUY No @ 92¢
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-08-23?
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-08-23? $1.7K
Aug 24 BUY Coco Gauff @ 96¢
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula $1.9K
Aug 23 BUY Miami Marlins @ 97¢
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins $1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed