Long-Term-Index-Replication
0x1a16db2990230cc3d5d5a402f21107d6ce54a7f6
Long-Term-Index-Replication: +$17K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 39%–86%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$17K
return +198.0%
Settled bets
12
$8.8K staked
Won
66.7%
95% range 39%–86%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$17K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14 | SELL Lina Gjorcheska
@ 46¢
Ljubljana: Miriam Bulgaru vs Lina Gjorcheska |
Ljubljana: Miriam Bulgaru vs Lina Gjorcheska | $3.8K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Elias Ymer
@ 99.9¢
Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin |
Guangzhou: Elias Ymer vs Semen Pankin | $3.7K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Samira De Stefano
@ 95¢
Ljubljana: Arantxa Rus vs Samira De Stefano |
Ljubljana: Arantxa Rus vs Samira De Stefano | $5.2K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Samira De Stefano
@ 36¢
Ljubljana: Arantxa Rus vs Samira De Stefano |
Ljubljana: Arantxa Rus vs Samira De Stefano | $1.0K |
| Sep 14 | SELL Gina Feistel
@ 35¢
Ljubljana: Barbora Palicova vs Gina Feistel |
Ljubljana: Barbora Palicova vs Gina Feistel | $1.8K |
| Sep 13 | SELL Claire Liu
@ 99.9¢
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova |
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova | $5.9K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Claire Liu
@ 74¢
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova |
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova | $1.6K |
| Sep 12 | SELL Claire Liu
@ 40¢
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova |
Barranquilla: Claire Liu vs Anna Blinkova | $1.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.