Small-Boundary
0x19cd028f900dde7b01594940dfd5b60fdd917a82
Small-Boundary: −$4.9K on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 93% (95% range 69%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$4.9K
return −7.9%
Settled bets
14
$63K staked
Won
92.9%
95% range 69%–99%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$5.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$35
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$10
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 2? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 2? | $5.0K |
| Sep 28 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 28? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 28? | $5.0K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? | $5.0K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 17? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 17? | $5.0K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15? | $5.0K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12? | $5.0K |
| Sep 8 | BUY No
@ 99.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 8? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 8? | $5.0K |
| Sep 3 | BUY Yes
@ 99.87¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 3? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 3? | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.