Pointed-Humidity

0x17dbae6fecba1c02bd673887b3cd94b75529c1e8

Skill vs luck

Pointed-Humidity on Polymarket: 12 settled bets · won 92% (95% range 65%–99%) · profit −$1. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Pointed-Humidity: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x17dbae6fecba1c02bd673887b3cd94b75529c1e8. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Pointed-Humidity: −$1 on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 92% (95% range 65%–99%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$1

return −0.0%

Settled bets

$17K staked

Won

91.7%

95% range 65%–99%

Mostly bets on

stocks

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 1 – Oct 15: +$93
Oct 15 – Oct 29: −$95

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +1.3% (2,530 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 28	BUY No @ 93¢ Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 Week of October 26 2026?	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 Week of October 26 2026?	$1.1K
Oct 27	BUY No @ 90¢ Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 28?	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 28?	$1.4K
Oct 27	BUY No @ 87¢ Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 1?	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 1?	$1.6K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 92¢ Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October? ↗	$2.1K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 99.22¢ Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?	$1.0K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 99.6¢ Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October? ↗	$2.6K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 99.62¢ Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	Will XRP reach $2.60 in October?	$2.6K
Oct 26	BUY No @ 99.45¢ Will XRP reach $2.20 in October?	Will XRP reach $2.20 in October?	$2.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793257219, computed 2026-10-29 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793257219 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed