Long-Term-Sustainment-Globe
Skill vs luck
Long-Term-Sustainment-Globe on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit −$6.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Long-Term-Sustainment-Globe: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1691c5c584bd61fa7a8d4c850c52b046ce8116a1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Long-Term-Sustainment-Globe: −$6.7K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$6.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Nuggets @ 77¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Nuggets @ 77¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Nuggets @ 77¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Nuggets @ 77¢ | Warriors vs. Nuggets ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 94¢ | Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 94¢ | Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 94¢ | Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Elena Rybakina @ 95¢ | Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?