Itchy-Sunlamp-Toad
0x168fd826a1f30c1752f221b74a7a1316c54f6424
Itchy-Sunlamp-Toad: +$24K on 87 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 63% (95% range 53%–73%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$24K
return +6.3%
Settled bets
87
$381K staked
Won
63.2%
95% range 53%–73%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 86 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$33K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$8.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY Over
@ 55¢
Kings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 |
Kings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 | $3.2K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Maple Leafs
@ 65¢
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche |
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche | $2.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 41¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cowboys
@ 64¢
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5) |
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5) | $1.4K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cowboys
@ 63¢
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5) |
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5) | $5.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Chicago White Sox
@ 45¢
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) |
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) | $3.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cleveland Guardians
@ 53¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cleveland Guardians
@ 52¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $2.8K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.