Imaginary-Gallery

0x161a7f666ca49d592848cf415b42f49a84714103

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Imaginary-Gallery: +$13K on 230 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 60%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$13K
return +2.8%
Settled bets
230
$480K staked
Won
66.5%
95% range 60%–72%
Mostly bets on
crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 221 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$19K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$10K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$16K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

BUY $6.7K
bought Iowa @ 96¢ → now 96¢ (+$31)

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 46¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres $1.1K
Oct 6 BUY No @ 72¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-10-06?
Will Jordan win on 2026-10-06? $2.2K
Oct 6 BUY New York Yankees @ 54¢
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays $1.0K
Oct 4 BUY San Diego Padres @ 75¢
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers $1.2K
Oct 4 BUY Vikings @ 97¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Dolphins vs. Vikings $2.5K
Oct 4 BUY Under @ 57¢
Utah vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5
Utah vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5 $2.4K
Oct 4 BUY Over @ 56¢
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 37.5
Chargers vs. Seahawks: O/U 37.5 $1.2K
Oct 4 BUY Under @ 72¢
Jets vs. Bears: O/U 43.5
Jets vs. Bears: O/U 43.5 $1.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed