Quarrelsome-Sari-Tell

0x160223e42e22a4d8b7d81ff45d83e3aaa27dfbb0

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Quarrelsome-Sari-Tell: +$2.7K on 58 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 36%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$2.7K
return +2.0%
Settled bets
58
$138K staked
Won
48.3%
95% range 36%–61%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 31 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$3.3K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$6.1K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 15 BUY Keegan Smith @ 32¢
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith $2.1K
Sep 15 SELL Mitchell Krueger @ 66¢
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith $2.7K
Sep 15 BUY Mitchell Krueger @ 91¢
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith
Tiburon: Mitchell Krueger vs Keegan Smith $3.8K
Sep 15 BUY Filip Pieczonka @ 49¢
Szczecin: Tiago Pereira vs Filip Pieczonka
Szczecin: Tiago Pereira vs Filip Pieczonka $2.0K
Sep 15 BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz @ 74¢
Valencia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Martina Trevisan
Valencia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Martina Trevisan $7.0K
Sep 15 SELL Anouk Koevermans @ 99.9¢
Caldas da Rainha: Elena Micic vs Anouk Koevermans
Caldas da Rainha: Elena Micic vs Anouk Koevermans $8.0K
Sep 15 SELL Nadia Podoroska @ 99.9¢
Sao Paulo Open: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Nadia Podoroska
Sao Paulo Open: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Nadia Podoroska $7.7K
Sep 15 SELL Kristina Novak @ 94¢
Ljubljana: Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina Novak
Ljubljana: Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina Novak $1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed