Gruesome-Uplift
Skill vs luck
Gruesome-Uplift on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$172. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Gruesome-Uplift: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1424a9e0a0def5a86c3c6cffbd8b6c65e1b12c7f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Gruesome-Uplift: +$172 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$172
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes @ 85¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 86¢ | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 15 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | $2.4K |
| Oct 12 | SELL Yes @ 99.21¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Aug 31 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $6.0K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?