Blue-Refuse
0x13659c6a1aacd0e3bcb022e06261fff367f6c82a
Blue-Refuse: +$11K on 92 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 46%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$11K
return +7.2%
Settled bets
92
$157K staked
Won
56.5%
95% range 46%–66%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 79 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$9.4K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 66¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $7.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Aurora
@ 72¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 78¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $3.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Vitality
@ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | $5.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 68¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 67¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.