Confused-Birthday
Skill vs luck
Confused-Birthday on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit +$1.9K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Confused-Birthday: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0ebbb3e9fde570bb7f6c452e9f9eee4ec6eacb1a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Confused-Birthday: +$1.9K on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$1.9K
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$1
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL Xinran Sun @ 99.9¢ | Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu ↗ | $1.3K |
| Sep 3 | BUY Miguel Damas
@ 43¢
Porto: Miguel Damas vs Dimitar Kuzmanov |
Porto: Miguel Damas vs Dimitar Kuzmanov | $1.3K |
| Sep 2 | SELL
@ 99.81¢
US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech AND US Open WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Taylah Preston |
US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur Rinderknech AND US Open WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Taylah Preston | $2.0K |
| Sep 1 | BUY Adolfo Vallejo @ 64¢ | US Open ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Gael Monfils ↗ | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.