Leading-Substitution
0x0c154c190e293b7e5f8d453b5f690c4dc9599a45
Leading-Substitution: +$1.1K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 53% (95% range 31%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.1K
return +2.0%
Settled bets
17
$57K staked
Won
52.9%
95% range 31%–74%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$5.7K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$4.7K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$11K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | BUY Under
@ 52¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 |
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 | $5.3K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Connecticut Sun
@ 59¢
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun |
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun | $4.8K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Connecticut Sun
@ 57¢
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun |
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun | $1.4K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5 |
Seahawks vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5 | $2.8K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Atlanta Dream
@ 58¢
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty |
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty | $1.2K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Jaguars
@ 54¢
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5) |
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5) | $2.8K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Portland Fire
@ 50¢
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) |
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) | $4.0K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Over
@ 51¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 |
Golden State Valkyries vs. Portland Fire: O/U 157.5 | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.