Disguised-Cable-Chino

0x09a354cc46f0d4597f5eb909535f2e980b5c2349

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Disguised-Cable-Chino: +$8.9K on 35 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 44%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$8.9K
return +9.5%
Settled bets
35
$93K staked
Won
60.0%
95% range 44%–74%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 35 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$2.9K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$5.6K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$355
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 BUY No @ 66¢
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04?
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-10-04? $2.8K
Oct 3 BUY Under @ 64¢
Belarus vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5
Belarus vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 $3.5K
Oct 3 BUY Bulgaria @ 63¢
Spread: Iceland (-1.5)
Spread: Iceland (-1.5) $3.5K
Oct 3 BUY No @ 69¢
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-10-03?
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-10-03? $4.5K
Oct 2 BUY No @ 49¢
Will Slovakia win on 2026-10-02?
Will Slovakia win on 2026-10-02? $2.0K
Oct 2 BUY Over @ 63¢
Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5
Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 $2.5K
Oct 1 BUY Under @ 47¢
Greece vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5
Greece vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 $2.0K
Oct 1 BUY Malta @ 55¢
Spread: Malta (-1.5)
Spread: Malta (-1.5) $2.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed