Curly-Dust
Skill vs luck
Curly-Dust on Polymarket: 33 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 50%–80%) · profit +$156. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Curly-Dust: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x051adea0d16c85df8a8a9c7e400e0655905d1db9. Data CC BY 4.0.
Curly-Dust: +$156 on 33 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 50%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 33 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$5.6K
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- −$5.4K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY Jack Kennedy
@ 51¢
Charlottesville: Jack Kennedy vs Hynek Barton |
Charlottesville: Jack Kennedy vs Hynek Barton | $2.0K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Murphy Cassone
@ 79¢
Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone |
Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone | $2.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Botic van de Zandschulp @ 36¢ | Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp ↗ | $2.3K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Under
@ 78¢
Athletic Club vs. Ceará SC: O/U 4.5 |
Athletic Club vs. Ceará SC: O/U 4.5 | $1.3K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Jack Kennedy
@ 37¢
Charlottesville: Jack Kennedy vs Hynek Barton |
Charlottesville: Jack Kennedy vs Hynek Barton | $1.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Under
@ 35¢
Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 |
Atalanta BC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 | $1.1K |
| Nov 2 | BUY Suns
@ 48¢
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) |
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Nov 2 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Pogon Szczecin win on 2026-11-02? |
Will Pogon Szczecin win on 2026-11-02? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.