Foolhardy-Essence
0x04d5524a0a5af2eca6e39e03defc261d42fe66d8
Foolhardy-Essence: +$84K on 24 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 31%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$84K
return +13.1%
Settled bets
24
$636K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 31%–69%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 24 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$192K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$275K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 | BUY Over
@ 41¢
CA River Plate vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 |
CA River Plate vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 | $1.6K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? |
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? | $33K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? |
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? | $10K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Yes
@ 54¢
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? |
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-09-06? | $16K |
| Sep 6 | BUY No
@ 61¢
Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-09-06? |
Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-09-06? | $3.6K |
| Sep 6 | BUY Yes
@ 35¢
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-09-06? |
Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-09-06? | $1.3K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Yes
@ 42¢
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-09-05? |
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-09-05? | $76K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Yes
@ 41¢
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-09-05? |
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-09-05? | $4.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.