Black-And-White-Solitaire

0x0353aaf82abbd3e69c00059df0a825bc198fc2ff

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$13K
return −1.9%
Settled bets
125
$676K staked
Won
56.0%
95% range 47%–64%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 106 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$49K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$45K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$17K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 Bought Under at 35¢
Florida vs. Missouri: O/U 45.5
Florida vs. Missouri: O/U 45.5 $2.6K
Oct 3 Bought Under at 82¢
Spain vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5
Spain vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 $1.2K
Oct 3 Sold Under at 47¢
Switzerland vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5
Switzerland vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 $6.8K
Oct 3 Bought Under at 74¢
Switzerland vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5
Switzerland vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 $18K
Oct 3 Bought Under at 92¢
Estonia vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5
Estonia vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 $11K
Oct 3 Bought Under at 43¢
Estonia vs. Luxembourg: O/U 2.5
Estonia vs. Luxembourg: O/U 2.5 $4.6K
Oct 3 Sold Under at 49¢
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5 $1.6K
Oct 3 Bought Under at 65¢
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5
Croatia vs. England: O/U 3.5 $15K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed