Miserable-Poison
0x0346afae2603313d2bbee96b628536c8cbe352a5
Miserable-Poison: −$96K on 1,032 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 66%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$96K
return −3.9%
Settled bets
1,032
$2.48M staked
Won
69.3%
95% range 66%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1,032 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$33K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$26K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$37K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 55¢
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-10-11? |
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-10-11? | $1.1K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Under
@ 89¢
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5 |
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Seattle Sounders FC
@ 75¢
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5) |
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Seattle Sounders FC
@ 74¢
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5) |
Spread: New England Revolution (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Seattle Sounders FC
@ 88¢
Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5) |
Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 28¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? | $1.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 85¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? | $2.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 38¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10? |
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10? | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.