Used-Tugboat

0x033eeb3efed4a42059faace467c5c3f6eb2e1bb9

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Used-Tugboat: +$456 on 42 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 29%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$456
return +0.8%
Settled bets
42
$54K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 29%–58%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$3.0K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$1.6K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$953
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 BUY No @ 99¢
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? $2.1K
Oct 5 BUY No @ 95¢
Will Saba Lobzhanidze be in Georgia's Starting 11?
Will Saba Lobzhanidze be in Georgia's Starting 11? $1.0K
Oct 3 SELL Alina Charaeva @ 84¢
China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva
China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva $1.1K
Oct 3 SELL Xinran Sun @ 99.9¢
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa
China Open: Xinran Sun vs Cristina Bucsa $1.8K
Oct 3 SELL Qinwen Zheng @ 99.9¢
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya
China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Anna Kalinskaya $1.3K
Oct 3 BUY Jelena Ostapenko @ 63¢
China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa
China Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Paula Badosa $1.3K
Oct 1 SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner $2.0K
Oct 1 SELL Adolfo Vallejo @ 67¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Rafael Jodar $1.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed