Probable-Eating
Skill vs luck
Probable-Eating on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$380. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Probable-Eating: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x02689e177c870b664b1f8327edf4156ea4bc915a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Probable-Eating: −$380 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- −$380
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Heat
@ 51¢
Spread: Heat (-8.5) |
Spread: Heat (-8.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Under
@ 56¢
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5 |
Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Lakers @ 47¢ | Spread: Lakers (-3.5) ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Hornets
@ 51¢
Spread: Wizards (-1.5) |
Spread: Wizards (-1.5) | $1.5K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.