Direct-Topic
0x02206ee784889c049e141440a8b019f1a3565ca3
Direct-Topic: +$3.6K on 90 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 37% (95% range 27%–47%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.6K
return +5.1%
Settled bets
90
$71K staked
Won
36.7%
95% range 27%–47%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 22 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$2.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$5.8K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$4
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Atlanta United FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5 |
Atlanta United FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5 | $1.3K |
| Sep 27 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
CD Guadalajara vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5 |
CD Guadalajara vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5 | $1.0K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
China PR vs. Maldives: O/U 2.5 |
China PR vs. Maldives: O/U 2.5 | $2.0K |
| Sep 21 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
CA Aldosivi vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5 |
CA Aldosivi vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5 | $2.3K |
| Sep 21 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
CA Paranaense vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 |
CA Paranaense vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 | $2.3K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Over
@ 99¢
CR Flamengo vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 |
CR Flamengo vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 | $2.6K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 0.5 |
Olympique de Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 0.5 | $2.5K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
SC Paderborn 07 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 |
SC Paderborn 07 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.