Lonely-Junket

0x01b632423fe9f97d0ad22ec865ed6e3c8e707d7c

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Lonely-Junket: +$10 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 57%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$10
return +0.1%
Settled bets
5
$10K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 57%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$6
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$2
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$3
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 3 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? $1.2K
Oct 3 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will Croatia vs. England end in a draw?
Will Croatia vs. England end in a draw? $1.3K
Sep 17 BUY No @ 96¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? $1.1K
Sep 13 BUY Legacy @ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5)
Map Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) $1.0K
Sep 12 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? $1.1K
Aug 28 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? $5.6K

All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed