Valuable-Span-Casket
0x0079f4851a258700a263d14f3d318a166f5d31c7
Valuable-Span-Casket: −$11K on 41 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 10%–34%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −50.9%
Settled bets
41
$22K staked
Won
19.5%
95% range 10%–34%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 13 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$260
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$3.9K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$7.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | SELL Nick Hardt
@ 99.9¢
Antofagasta: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nick Hardt |
Antofagasta: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Nick Hardt | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Daniil Medvedev
@ 57¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev |
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | $2.0K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Atlanta Braves
@ 83¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Milwaukee Brewers
@ 99.9¢
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers |
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers | $1.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Leolia Jeanjean
@ 52¢
Adana: Leolia Jeanjean vs Lois Boisson |
Adana: Leolia Jeanjean vs Lois Boisson | $1.3K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Alex de Minaur
@ 99.9¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev |
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev | $1.9K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Samuele Pieri
@ 97¢
Bari: Vitaliy Sachko vs Samuele Pieri |
Bari: Vitaliy Sachko vs Samuele Pieri | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Alex de Minaur
@ 46¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys |
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Quentin Halys | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.