Forthright-Pollution
Skill vs luck
Forthright-Pollution on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit −$259. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Forthright-Pollution: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xfa7630f752d65dc7115507ffc1319e485e5be588. Data CC BY 4.0.
Forthright-Pollution: −$259 on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$396
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$512
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 93¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Team Liquid @ 89¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Nemiga Gaming
@ 99¢
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A |
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | $1.0K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Conventus Stellarum @ 90¢ | Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs PlayTime (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage ↗ | $4.5K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Yellow Submarine
@ 99¢
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs uralan - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs uralan - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 5 | BUY Spirit Academy
@ 88¢
Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B |
Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | $2.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?