Shoddy-Protocol
Skill vs luck
Shoddy-Protocol on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 27% (95% range 10%–57%) · profit +$1.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shoddy-Protocol: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf9945fabc13b789dbe1c19086283db45ee6e0854. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shoddy-Protocol: +$1.7K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 27% (95% range 10%–57%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$1.3K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$2.1K
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$2.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | SELL fnatic @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs ↗ | $2.5K |
| Oct 27 | SELL LEGION @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY LEGION @ 47¢ | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | SELL BetBoom Team @ 53¢ | Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Alisa Oktiabreva
@ 99.9¢
W35 Heraklion: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Tilwith Di Girolami |
W35 Heraklion: Alisa Oktiabreva vs Tilwith Di Girolami | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢ | Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Commanders
@ 37¢
Spread: Colts (-13.5) |
Spread: Colts (-13.5) | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Washington @ 35¢ | Washington vs. USC ↗ | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?