Vengeful-Running-Technique

0xf880add3ab145ec40627abe09217bc7b51bd89c0

Skill vs luck

Vengeful-Running-Technique on Polymarket: 15 settled bets · won 53% (95% range 30%–75%) · profit +$14K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Vengeful-Running-Technique: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf880add3ab145ec40627abe09217bc7b51bd89c0. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Vengeful-Running-Technique: +$14K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 53% (95% range 30%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

+$14K

return +20.1%

Settled bets

$71K staked

Won

53.3%

95% range 30%–75%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 5 – Oct 21: +$14K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.5% (1,998 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 20	BUY Yes @ 85¢ Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20?	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? ↗	$8.2K
Oct 19	SELL Yes @ 81¢ Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-10-19?	Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-10-19?	$1.5K
Oct 19	SELL Under @ 73¢ CA Belgrano vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	CA Belgrano vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	$3.0K
Oct 19	BUY Under @ 68¢ CA Belgrano vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	CA Belgrano vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5	$2.0K
Oct 18	SELL Under @ 99.9¢ AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5	AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5	$1.5K
Oct 18	BUY Yes @ 82¢ Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-18?	Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-18?	$4.1K
Oct 18	BUY Yes @ 88¢ Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-18?	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-18?	$1.1K
Oct 18	BUY Yes @ 44¢ Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Score	Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Score	$1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792566006, computed 2026-10-21 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792566006 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed