Glum-Leading
Skill vs luck
Glum-Leading on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$21K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Glum-Leading: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf8164a94e27cdced0cc975e21308fb099b2d0433. Data CC BY 4.0.
Glum-Leading: +$21K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$21K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Lanlana Tararudee
@ 8¢
Guangzhou Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Lanlana Tararudee |
Guangzhou Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Lanlana Tararudee | $2.1K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Lanlana Tararudee
@ 6¢
Guangzhou Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Lanlana Tararudee |
Guangzhou Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Lanlana Tararudee | $2.9K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Tommy Paul
@ 52¢
Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev |
Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev | $4.0K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Hubert Hurkacz @ 99.9¢ | Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs ↗ | $31K |
| Oct 27 | SELL Yi Zhou
@ 99.9¢
Ningbo: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou |
Ningbo: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou | $10K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yi Zhou
@ 49¢
Ningbo: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou |
Ningbo: Elias Ymer vs Yi Zhou | $5.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Claire Liu @ 53¢ | Guangzhou Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Claire Liu ↗ | $14K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?