Separate-Goose

0xf653c27e82ca6d1fdc18c612a66baed232648be5

Skill vs luck

Separate-Goose on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 57%–100%) · profit +$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Separate-Goose: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf653c27e82ca6d1fdc18c612a66baed232648be5. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Separate-Goose: +$1.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 57%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$1.2K

return +1.9%

Settled bets

$62K staked

Won

100.0%

95% range 57%–100%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 16 – Oct 31: +$1.2K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +2.1% (2,609 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 31	BUY @ 77¢ Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 AND FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 AND Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-31?	Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 AND FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 AND Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-31?	$3.0K
Oct 30	BUY No @ 91¢ Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-30?	Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-30?	$2.3K
Oct 30	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗	$1.6K
Oct 30	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗	$1.6K
Oct 30	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗	$3.1K
Oct 30	BUY No @ 99.9¢ Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	$11K
Oct 30	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗	$1.3K
Oct 30	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC @ 98¢ Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)	Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5) ↗	$1.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793430041, computed 2026-10-31 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793430041 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed