Spirited-Project
Skill vs luck
Spirited-Project on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$3.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spirited-Project: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf62b709646bdf9bc15bedb094ee6ac062857844a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spirited-Project: −$3.4K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$3.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 |
Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 | $3.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Oilers
@ 14¢
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers |
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Kraken @ 39¢ | Wild vs. Kraken ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Oilers
@ 62¢
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers |
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers | $5.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Bruins
@ 65¢
Sharks vs. Bruins |
Sharks vs. Bruins | $5.0K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5 |
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5 | $5.0K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Capitals
@ 66¢
Kraken vs. Capitals |
Kraken vs. Capitals | $1.8K |
All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?