Stained-Cynic
Skill vs luck
Stained-Cynic on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$22K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Stained-Cynic: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf2f6af4f27ec2dcf4072095ab804016e14cd5817. Data CC BY 4.0.
Stained-Cynic: +$22K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$17K
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$957
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$4.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY Over @ 44¢ | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes @ 95¢ | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? ↗ | $18K |
| Sep 14 | BUY No @ 67¢ | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $3.6K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Yes @ 71¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $3.1K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Yes @ 70¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Sep 8 | BUY Yes @ 69¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $33K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?