Active-Shallot

0xf20b60cc9b8e97cb7678e8ab67bcc3480839e27d

Skill vs luck

Active-Shallot on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 10%–70%) · profit −$7.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Active-Shallot: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xf20b60cc9b8e97cb7678e8ab67bcc3480839e27d. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Active-Shallot: −$7.2K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 10%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$7.2K

return −58.4%

Settled bets

$12K staked

Won

33.3%

95% range 10%–70%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Sep 17 – Oct 1: −$7.6K
Oct 15 – Oct 29: +$381

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +1.3% (2,530 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 27	BUY Team Yandex @ 82¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs ↗	$1.7K
Oct 16	BUY Yellow Submarine @ 65¢ Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs The Warriors (+1.5)	Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs The Warriors (+1.5)	$1.3K
Sep 30	BUY Lodis @ 66¢ LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Lodis (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	LoL: Colossal Gaming vs Lodis (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage ↗	$2.0K
Sep 27	BUY KT Rolster Challengers @ 41¢ LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Galions - Game 2 Winner	LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Galions - Game 2 Winner	$2.5K
Sep 27	BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition @ 58¢ LoL: Anubis Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	LoL: Anubis Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage	$1.7K
Sep 23	BUY SU Esports @ 51¢ LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner	LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner	$1.5K
Sep 23	BUY SU Esports @ 50¢ LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner	LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner	$2.8K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793257219, computed 2026-10-29 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793257219 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed