Haunting-Cheese

0xee65685de42f8de9a03b4c53ee77d56a20d2cfc9

Skill vs luck

Haunting-Cheese on Polymarket: 551 settled bets · won 97% (95% range 95%–98%) · profit −$24K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Haunting-Cheese: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xee65685de42f8de9a03b4c53ee77d56a20d2cfc9. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Haunting-Cheese: −$24K on 551 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 97% (95% range 95%–98%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$24K

return −2.1%

Settled bets

551

$1.14M staked

Won

96.6%

95% range 95%–98%

Mostly bets on

crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 551 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: −$15K
Sep 5 – Sep 21: −$9.6K
Sep 21 – Oct 7: −$677
Oct 7 – Oct 24: +$1.4K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗	$3.0K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	$2.3K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	$3.0K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	$3.0K
Oct 23	BUY Up @ 98¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	$3.0K
Oct 22	BUY Down @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	$3.0K
Oct 22	BUY Up @ 99.9¢ Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	$3.0K
Oct 22	BUY Up @ 98¢ Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	$1.2K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed