Peppery-Hunter
Skill vs luck
Peppery-Hunter on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 61% (95% range 39%–80%) · profit −$205. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Peppery-Hunter: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xed12480311feaf549568a9802c056c4736b77626. Data CC BY 4.0.
Peppery-Hunter: −$205 on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 39%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$205
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Under
@ 56¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Spurs
@ 56¢
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) |
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Eagles
@ 70¢
Spread: Cowboys (-10.5) |
Spread: Cowboys (-10.5) | $1.6K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Astralis @ 57¢ | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 |
Grizzlies vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Colts
@ 84¢
Spread: Vikings (-17.5) |
Spread: Vikings (-17.5) | $2.0K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Buccaneers @ 70¢ | Spread: Panthers (-7.5) ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Over
@ 54¢
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: Sunderland AFC O/U 4.5 Corners |
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: Sunderland AFC O/U 4.5 Corners | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?