Untimely-Riverbed-Diaphragm

0xec9f344ac6b942bf2a8bb36ebc0294a73cd9e57b

Skill vs luck

Untimely-Riverbed-Diaphragm on Polymarket: 64 settled bets · won 44% (95% range 32%–56%) · profit −$22K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Untimely-Riverbed-Diaphragm: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xec9f344ac6b942bf2a8bb36ebc0294a73cd9e57b. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Untimely-Riverbed-Diaphragm: −$22K on 64 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 32%–56%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit

−$22K

return −16.0%

Settled bets

$137K staked

Won

43.8%

95% range 32%–56%

Mostly bets on

sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 45 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$3.1K
Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$13K
Sep 20 – Oct 6: −$2.1K
Oct 6 – Oct 22: −$3.3K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (1,982 positions).

In the live feed

SELL $5.1K

Over @ 99¢ → now 99.95¢

1h ago

NK Celje vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 21	SELL Over @ 99¢ FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 ↗	$4.1K
Oct 20	BUY Yes @ 58¢ FC Porto vs. PSV: Both Teams to Score	FC Porto vs. PSV: Both Teams to Score	$2.5K
Oct 19	BUY Yes @ 66¢ Viborg FF vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to Score	Viborg FF vs. FC Midtjylland: Both Teams to Score	$2.5K
Oct 18	BUY Over @ 54¢ DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5	DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. VfL Osnabrück: O/U 2.5	$2.5K
Oct 17	SELL Over @ 73¢ Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5	$6.1K
Oct 17	BUY Over @ 58¢ Mantova 1911 vs. Palermo FC: O/U 2.5	Mantova 1911 vs. Palermo FC: O/U 2.5	$2.5K
Oct 17	BUY Over @ 56¢ Norwich City FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5	Norwich City FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5	$2.5K
Oct 16	BUY Over @ 54¢ CD Leganés vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 2.5	CD Leganés vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 2.5	$2.4K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792652408, computed 2026-10-22 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792652408 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed