Nocturnal-Downfall
Skill vs luck
Nocturnal-Downfall on Polymarket: 18 settled bets · won 39% (95% range 20%–61%) · profit +$3.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Nocturnal-Downfall: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xec8bf101c738072bd36e8af5f20695655b8fe923. Data CC BY 4.0.
Nocturnal-Downfall: +$3.7K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 39% (95% range 20%–61%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 8 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- +$3.7K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY Down
@ 63¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | $1.2K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Rockets
@ 52¢
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5) |
Spread: Mavericks (-2.5) | $3.1K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Up
@ 54¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET | $1.4K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Team Spirit @ 75¢ | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $5.5K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Down
@ 99.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | $5.6K |
| Oct 30 | BUY MOUZ @ 61¢ | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $3.5K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Team Liquid @ 55¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.