Spotted-Manicure
Skill vs luck
Spotted-Manicure on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$46. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Spotted-Manicure: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xeaa31e58d79893d49f5a82094544ca3c179ceec2. Data CC BY 4.0.
Spotted-Manicure: +$46 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$46
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 97¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? ↗ | $1.1K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Yes @ 99¢ | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? ↗ | $3.3K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.