Discrete-Bus-Silkworm
Skill vs luck
Discrete-Bus-Silkworm on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$36K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Discrete-Bus-Silkworm: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe8fcfdb0c2df34287d471aac15f24f853b33e664. Data CC BY 4.0.
Discrete-Bus-Silkworm: −$36K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$36K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY FC Barcelona @ 43¢ | Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) ↗ | $33K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes
@ 51¢
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25? |
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25? | $5.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes
@ 53¢
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-21? |
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-21? | $2.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?