Rapid-Climate
Skill vs luck
Rapid-Climate on Polymarket: 87 settled bets · won 47% (95% range 37%–57%) · profit +$32K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Rapid-Climate: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe5f0ae9cc9aef77ae3c2a64c9e69caa3f335dc1d. Data CC BY 4.0.
Rapid-Climate: +$32K on 87 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 37%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 82 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.3K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$18K
- Sep 20 – Oct 6
- +$15K
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$4.1K
In the live feed
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | BUY Over
@ 25¢
Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 |
Flyers vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Over @ 60¢ | FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Over
@ 38¢
FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 |
FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 | $6.4K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Over
@ 42¢
Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 |
Kings vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 | $1.3K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Over
@ 46¢
Sabah FK vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 |
Sabah FK vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 | $3.7K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Hurricanes vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 |
Hurricanes vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 | $3.8K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Over
@ 59¢
Hurricanes vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 |
Hurricanes vs. Flames: O/U 5.5 | $1.2K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-17? |
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-17? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?