Unkempt-Penicillin
Skill vs luck
Unkempt-Penicillin on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 80% (95% range 38%–96%) · profit +$12K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unkempt-Penicillin: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe5e1072b676d83ba78d1a20460fd4d072b85badc. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unkempt-Penicillin: +$12K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- +$12K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Up
@ 52¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up @ 49¢ | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET ↗ | $5.3K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Down
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | $5.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up
@ 34¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET | $1.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Up
@ 33¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Down
@ 65¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | $2.4K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?