Creamy-Guest
Skill vs luck
Creamy-Guest on Polymarket: 71 settled bets · won 58% (95% range 46%–69%) · profit −$4.3K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Creamy-Guest: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe5502f3b033ebcd64233b5ffc43c44c24170be3f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Creamy-Guest: −$4.3K on 71 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 46%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 71 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 24
- −$4.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY FUT Esports
@ 78¢
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Flavio Cobolli
@ 52¢
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti |
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Lorenzo Musetti | $1.0K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Liudmila Samsonova
@ 88¢
Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson |
Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes
@ 52¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24? | $2.6K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Seahawks
@ 68¢
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) |
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) | $3.4K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Warriors @ 58¢ | Spread: Warriors (-1.5) ↗ | $2.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Grizzlies @ 50¢ | Spread: Warriors (-4.5) ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Under
@ 87¢
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 |
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?