White-Doorpost-Screwup
Skill vs luck
White-Doorpost-Screwup on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 25% (95% range 5%–70%) · profit −$968. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “White-Doorpost-Screwup: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe0a20c436a63ac41fdf1fafcc32ca44287ca7072. Data CC BY 4.0.
White-Doorpost-Screwup: −$968 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 25% (95% range 5%–70%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$968
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL UCF @ 99¢ | BYU vs. UCF ↗ | $2.4K |
| Oct 24 | SELL UCF
@ 97¢
Spread: BYU (-10.5) |
Spread: BYU (-10.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 24 | SELL UCF
@ 97¢
Spread: BYU (-10.5) |
Spread: BYU (-10.5) | $1.8K |
| Oct 24 | SELL UCF
@ 98¢
Spread: BYU (-10.5) |
Spread: BYU (-10.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Heat @ 61¢ | Heat vs. Hornets ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Indiana
@ 99.1¢
Spread: Indiana (-6.5) |
Spread: Indiana (-6.5) | $2.8K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Indiana
@ 99.1¢
Spread: Indiana (-6.5) |
Spread: Indiana (-6.5) | $3.1K |
| Oct 24 | BUY UCF
@ 59¢
Spread: BYU (-10.5) |
Spread: BYU (-10.5) | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?