Pricey-Index-Seminar

0xdced0269e8432039c98070b98b7afbd43c1dc799

Skill vs luck

Pricey-Index-Seminar on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$7.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 30, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Pricey-Index-Seminar: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 30, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdced0269e8432039c98070b98b7afbd43c1dc799. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Pricey-Index-Seminar: −$7.8K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

−$7.8K

return −43.5%

Settled bets

$18K staked

Won

66.7%

95% range 21%–94%

Mostly bets on

esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Oct 1 – Oct 16: +$2.3K
Oct 16 – Oct 30: −$10K

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.5% (2,471 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 29	BUY Team Spirit @ 77¢ Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	$2.8K
Oct 29	BUY Team Spirit @ 76¢ Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	$2.4K
Oct 28	BUY LEGION @ 15¢ Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.7K
Oct 28	BUY LEGION @ 43¢ Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner ↗	$10K
Oct 6	SELL MORROW @ 45¢ Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	$2.1K
Oct 6	SELL MORROW @ 19¢ Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	$1.3K
Oct 6	BUY MORROW @ 52¢ Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	Counter-Strike: Just Players vs MORROW (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group A	$1.1K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793343609, computed 2026-10-30 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1793343609 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed