Another-Allowance
Skill vs luck
Another-Allowance on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$47. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Another-Allowance: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xdafd27c48807e5f5a576bd8a3854342c47a65ffb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Another-Allowance: +$47 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$30
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$16
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No @ 99¢ | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? ↗ | $2.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
GTA VI released by November 30? |
GTA VI released by November 30? | $1.2K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 99.5¢ | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? ↗ | $3.2K |
| Sep 3 | BUY No
@ 99.2¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? |
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? | $2.0K |
| Aug 26 | BUY No @ 99¢ | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? ↗ | $1.0K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?