True-Drum-Volcano
Skill vs luck
True-Drum-Volcano on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “True-Drum-Volcano: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd90c78b605190dc9bfd6cac93cdf4eb8a17e2ec8. Data CC BY 4.0.
True-Drum-Volcano: −$1.2K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | SELL Wizards @ 93¢ | Bucks vs. Wizards ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Wizards @ 85¢ | Bucks vs. Wizards ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Celtics @ 74¢ | Celtics vs. Pistons ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 20 | SELL
@ 99.71¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-20? AND Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? |
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-20? AND Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? | $1.7K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?