Steep-Wage

0xd416cb7fbe8dbf22efc49a86e6aa8a3c6c464961

Skill vs luck

Steep-Wage on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Steep-Wage: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xd416cb7fbe8dbf22efc49a86e6aa8a3c6c464961. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Steep-Wage: −$1.8K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$1.8K
return −39.6%
Settled bets
3
$4.5K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 6%–79%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 17 – Nov 1
−$1.8K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made +3.8% (2,670 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 31 BUY @ 61¢
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-31? AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-31?
 Will Union Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-10-31? AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-31? $2.6K
Oct 31 SELL Yes @ 97¢
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-31?
 Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-31? ↗ $2.6K
Oct 31 SELL @ 18¢
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-31?
 Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-31? $1.1K
Oct 31 BUY Yes @ 64¢
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-31?
 Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-31? $2.5K
Oct 31 SELL @ 99.93¢
Will Bursaspor win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-31?
 Will Bursaspor win on 2026-10-31? AND Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-31? $7.2K
Oct 30 SELL Yes @ 93¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30?
 Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30? $5.8K
Oct 30 BUY Yes @ 62¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30?
 Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30? $2.0K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1793516413, computed 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1793516413 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed